With the national cattle herd at its lowest levels since 1950, Tyson Foods announced the upcoming closure of their Lexington, Nebraska beef processing facility in January 2026. 

As beef packers are still challenged with ongoing margin compression there is the potential for additional reduction in processing capacity.

At the beginning of 2026, the adjustment of the Brazilian export quota is being closely monitored as this could potentially stimulate beef imports into the U.S.    

Heavier cattle carcass weights continue to help offset the reduced slaughter levels.

With cattle being kept on feed longer, grading for choice, premium, and prime remains strong. Availability for lower grades such as Select continues to be limited, which is supporting higher prices.

• Ribeye pricing remains at historically high levels but will be under pressure to decrease after the Xmas and New Year holidays.
• Striploin pricing remains elevated as consumers consider the striploin a better value than the higher priced ribeye and tenderloin.
• Chuck flat pricing will continue to increase heading into the year as the overall chuck complex remains surprisingly strong despite the high prices.
• Chuck Roll prices remain at high levels with retailers promoting chuck items heavily in their holiday ad features.
• Sliced beef short rib pricing continues to remain at elevated levels due to limited availability of raw material.
• Oxtail prices have been increasing due to limited cattle supplies and increased demand ahead of the colder winter months.

With the cattle herd at historically low levels, availability will be the primary issue for certain cuts due to the tight cattle supply and continued strong consumer demand.

Overall poultry prices are poised to increase as there will be reduced inventory with the back-to-back short kill weeks at the plants during the Xmas and New Year holidays. 

Retailers are expected to feature poultry more prominently in ads post holidays for health-conscious consumers with New Years resolutions.

• BI Thighs – Availability remains adequate, but prices have increased as retailers allocate more space in the meat case to BI thighs in place of higher priced beef items. 
• BL SL Thighs –BL SL Thigh prices have bottomed out and will be increasing as the dark meat complex strengthens.
• Leg meat –Chicken leg meat pricing remains steady for now but is under pressure as thigh meat prices rise.
• Breast meat –Breast meat prices declined this month but are expected to increase at the beginning of the year.  
• Wings – Wing prices have decreased as there is more than sufficient supply relative to the demand. 
• Turkey –Turkey prices remain high due to tight supplies and the ongoing impact of the HPAI bird flu affecting turkey flocks.  

Poultry Outlook – With high beef prices, poultry remains the protein of choice for consumers seeking value and affordability. 

Pork continues to present good value for both the retail and food service segments as a lower cost protein option than beef.

Retail demand for lower cost proteins such as sausages, hot dogs, canned meats, etc. remains strong amongst budget conscious consumers. 

• Butts– Boneless butt pricing remains steady due to overall softness in the pork complex. 
• Hams– Ham demand remains strong as tariffs have not negatively impacted exports to Mexico.   
• Back Ribs & Spare Ribs- Rib prices remain steady as retailers feature ribs as a lower cost protein option than beef. 
• Bellies- Belly pricing is expected to strengthen due to increased seasonal demand at the retail level. For bellies imported from Europe, prices will be increasing primarily due to an outbreak of ASF (African Swine Flu) in Spain.

Pork Outlook – With high beef prices, retailers are expected to continue to feature pork heavily in future ad features.  

Mahi Mahi  

• Peru has been fishing for the past couple of months.  Volume is still low and majority of the fish are small. 
• Prices remain very strong on all cuts and sizes 
• Availability on fillets and loins remain very tight.  
• Next offering for fillets will be 3/5#, rather than the 5/7#. 
• Ono loins are still a great option to Mahi Fillets/Loins. 

Pasteurized Canned Crabmeat (Blue Swimming Crab)  

• Prices remain firm with the temporary reprieve of the MMPA (Marine Mammal Protection Act). 
• Alternative products to consider using: 
  • Snow Crab Combo Meat 
  • Deep Sea Red Crab Combo Meat 

Shrimp  

• Flooding in Southeast Asia have affected many farmers in Thailand and Indonesia. This is affecting Black Tigers and White Shrimp. 
• As suppliers move through pre-tariff inventory and rotate into newer inventory. Prices will increase to accommodate for the US tariffs that were levied against each country. 
• This will be the same situation for the breaded and battered Shrimp items.  Majority of the production is done in foreign countries.